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Exam 4: Forecasting Demand

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Question 31

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Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?

A) Determine the use of the forecast.
B) Eliminate any assumptions.
C) Determine the time horizon of the forecast.
D) Select the forecasting model.
E) Validate and implement the results.

F) B) and D)
G) C) and D)

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Question 32

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________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

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Question 33

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Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk,packages them,and sells them to retail stores.The managers are conducting an inventory control study of all their items.The following data are for one such item,which is not seasonal. a.Use a trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation). b.Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year.

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months.What is the mean absolute deviation?

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

The tracking signal is the:

A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain.Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed,a forecast of 172 items for that period,and a smoothing constant of 0.3,what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.

Which of the following is not present in a time series?

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

Simple ________ forecasts only work well if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

Marie Bain is the production manager at a company that manufactures hot water heaters.Marie needs a demand forecast for the next few years to help decide whether to add new production capacity.The company's sales history (in thousands of units)is shown in the table below.Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 6.The initial forecast for period 1 was 11 units;the initial estimate of trend was 0.The smoothing constants are α = .3 and β = .3

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x.What is your forecast for period 7?

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below.Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5,6,and 7.Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods.Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method. Week Sales (cases) 1 17 2 21 3 27 4 31 5 19 6 17 7 21

As compared to long-range forecasts,short-range forecasts: